Since he made his comments, oil prices have already doubled. His prediction of $100 a barrel may not be three years away. We could easily reach that level before year's end.
Simmons' reference to 'peak oil' refers to the point when an oil field reaches peak production before beginning to deplete available supplies.
According to the International Energy Agency, which collates data from all oil producing countries, peak oil will arrive "sometime between 2013 and 2037. The IEA says that after that point, production will decline by about 3% per year.
Simmons said that official US Geological Survey estimates that it will not happen for 35 years are over-optimistic.
Chris Skrebowski, of the Energy Institute in London, citing Exxon statistics, said that the depletion of global conventional oil reserves was running at about 5% a year now. He told the conference, “Norway, Venezuela, the UK and Indonesia and many others are all declining production. I expect Denmark, Malaysia, China, Mexico and Brunei to peak within three years. I estimate that we have, at best, 32 months before [the crisis] hits.”
Our energy supplies situation could hardly be more precarious. All honest projections of America’s present energy future lead toward catastrophe.
Just take a look at these facts. America gets the majority of its foreign oil supplies from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. While it is unlikely Canada will use its oil wealth to squeeze Washington, our other major suppliers are growing increasingly less reliable.
Mexico is using its oil reserves to blackmail Washington into turning a blind eye to illegal immigration.
Venezuela, our oldest and most prolific supplier, is led by one of the two the most anti-American leaders in the Western hemisphere – Hugo Chavez. The other chief American-hater, Fidel Castro, is giving Chavez pointers on how to put the screws to us.
In terms of importance, Venezuela supplies more oil to the US than both Iraq and Kuwait combined.
And then there is Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a textbook example of what America is willing to put up with in order to ensure a steady supply of oil.
Nineteen Saudis killed three thousand Americans on September 11. All planes in US airspace were ordered grounded. But an exception was made for a flight to Saudi Arabia for members of important Saudi families, including those of Osama bin-Laden the day after the September 11 attacks.
Saudi Arabia controls the largest share of the world's oil. It also serves as the market regulator for the global petroleum industry. No country is more dependent on Saudi oil than the United States. Shutting off the Saudi spigot would be devastating to both the U.S. and global economies. Which is why Washington is so tolerant of such a dysfunctional, out-of-touch and out-of-control Saudi royal family.
The recent death of Saudi King Fahd showed how critical Saudi oil supplies are to the global economy. Even though Prince Abdullah ran the kingdom for the last decade, King Fahd’s death caused the price of oil to set a new record, then at $62 a barrel.
It demonstrated that oil dependent West’s fear that any hint of trouble with the line of succession could throw the world’s oil supplies into chaos. Which raises an even bigger problem.
What happens after King Abdullah?
The real irony is this – democratic reforms are probably America’s worst-case scenario. Recent limited elections permitted by Abdullah demonstrated just how great this danger is.
These elections revealed that if open, truly free elections were held in Saudi Arabia, the radical core of devout Wahabbi-following Islamic fundamentalists would take over Arabia and cast out the House of Saud. Iran and all other Islamic Fundamentalists have been trying to do this for years.
Islamic Fundamentalists do not believe the Saudi royal family are worthy of ruling “holy Arabia.”
So there you have the ultimate “nightmare scenario.” The cohorts of Osama bin-Laden would have control of the world’s oil supply. Guess who would be shut out? This would in effect hand over the strategic control of the global economy to the Osama bin-Laden-led Muslim Fundamentalists.
This would fit in with all the other biblical signs that we are indeed in the "last days." Apart from some drastic reforms to this situation now, the world economy is in for some perilous and chaotic times in the near future. And America is in for catastrophe.
As the oil supply goes, so goes the economy. As the economy goes, so goes American power.